Table of Contents
Preface ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. i
Table of Contents …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. iii
List of Figures …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. vii
List of Tables ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ix
Glossary of Policy Analysis Terms ……………………………………………………………………………. xi
1. Introduction to the Research …………………………………………………………………………… 1
1.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1.2 Background……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1
1.3 Problem statement ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 3
1.4 Research objectives ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4
1.5 Research questions …………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
1.6 Relevance ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 6
1.6.1 Social relevance ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 6
1.6.2 Scientific relevance ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 6
1.7 Research strategy ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 7
1.7.1 Research approach ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
1.7.2 A paper based dissertation …………………………………………………………………………………. 9
1.8 Outline of this dissertation……………………………………………………………………………….. 10
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
2. Research Framework ……………………………………………………………………………………. 15
2.1 Introduction to this chapter and the rest of this dissertation ………………………………….. 15
2.2 What is policy analysis? ………………………………………………………………………………….. 16
2.3 What is uncertainty? ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 17
2.4 Policy Analysis and uncertainty ……………………………………………………………………….. 18
2.5 Assessing policymaking approaches …………………………………………………………………. 24
2.6 Synthesis and conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………. 25
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26
3. ISA Implementation and Uncertainty ……………………………………………………………. 31
3.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 31
3.2 Theory and methodology …………………………………………………………………………………. 33
3.2.1 A framework for uncertainty categorization ………………………………………………………. 33
3.2.2 Literature review methodology ………………………………………………………………………… 34
3.2.3 Expert elicitation methodology ………………………………………………………………………… 34
3.3 Identifying the candidate uncertainties surrounding the implementation of ISA ……… 35
3.3.1 Results of the literature review …………………………………………………………………………. 35
3.3.2 Conclusions of the literature review ………………………………………………………………….. 41
3.4 Expert elicitation on the level and importance of the uncertainties ……………………….. 42
3.4.1 Results on the level of uncertainty ……………………………………………………………………. 43
3.4.2 Results on the importance of the uncertainties ……………………………………………………. 44
3.4.3 Results on additional uncertainties regarding ISA implementation ……………………….. 46
3.5 What remains to be done? ……………………………………………………………………………….. 47
3.6 Conclusions & Recommendations ……………………………………………………………………. 49
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 52
Appendix 1 Level of uncertainty versus barrier for implementation, for three types of ISA . 59
4. Exploratory MCDA for Handling Deep Uncertainties ……………………………………. 61
4.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 61
4.2 EMCDA to deal with the uncertainties in assessing ISA implementation policies ….. 64
4.2.1 Deep uncertainties ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 64
4.2.2 Exploratory Modelling and Analysis…………………………………………………………………. 65
4.2.3 Steps in EMCDA ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 67
4.3 Case study: Intelligent Speed Adaptation………………………………………………………….. 68
4.3.1 Deep uncertainty and implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation. ………………… 68
4.3.2 Step by step EMCDA for ISA implementation …………………………………………………… 69
3.3 The use of EMCDA ………………………………………………………………………………………… 82
4.4 Conclusions …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 83
4.4.1 Conclusions for ISA implementation ………………………………………………………………… 83
4.4.2 Conclusions regarding EMCDA……………………………………………………………………….. 83
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 85
Appendix 2 Table with information on uncertainties, the model characteristics and the
simulated runs ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 91
5. Operationalizing Adaptive Policymaking ………………………………………………………. 95
5.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 95
5.2 Adaptive Policymaking …………………………………………………………………………………… 97
5.2.1 Setting the stage (Phase I) and Assembling the basic policy (Phase II) ………………….. 98
5.2.2 Contingency planning (Phase IV) …………………………………………………………………….. 99
5.2.3 Implementation phase (Phase V) ………………………………………………………………………. 99
5.3 The ISA implementation case ………………………………………………………………………….. 99
5.4 The workshop ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 100
5.4.1 Setting the stage (Phase I) and Assembling the basic policy(Phase II) (See Sec. 2.1)102
5.4.2 Increasing the robustness of the basic policy (Phase III) and Contingency planning
(Phase IV) (See Sec. 2.2 and Sec. 2.3) …………………………………………………………….. 103
5.4.3 Implementation (Phase V) (See Sec. 2.4) …………………………………………………………. 106
5.5 Evaluation of the workshop ……………………………………………………………………………. 107
5.6 Lessons learned about the process of developing adaptive policies ……………………… 107
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 109
6. Evaluating Adaptive Policymaking Using Expert Opinions ………………………….. 113
6.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 113
6.2 Adaptive Policymaking: the concept and its promise ………………………………………… 115
6.3 Methodology and evaluation criteria for assessing adaptive policies …………………… 117
6.3.1 An approach to evaluating Adaptive Policymaking …………………………………………… 117
6.3.2 Evaluation criteria that can be used to assess Adaptive Policymaking …………………. 119
6.4 A workshop to design adaptive policies for implementation of traffic safety
technologies …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 120
6.5 Results of the evaluation ……………………………………………………………………………….. 124
6.5.1 The participants ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 124
6.5.2 The evaluation questionnaire ………………………………………………………………………….. 125
6.5.3 Analysis of the results …………………………………………………………………………………… 126
6.5.4 Generalizability of the results …………………………………………………………………………. 132
6.6 Conclusions …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 133
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 135
Appendix 3 Actions defined in workshop …………………………………………………………………… 138
7. Conclusions and Reflections ………………………………………………………………………… 143
7.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 143
7.2 Answers to the research questions …………………………………………………………………… 144
7.2.1 Defining and classifying uncertainty ……………………………………………………………….. 144
7.2.2 ISA implementation and uncertainty ……………………………………………………………….. 144
7.2.3 Decision support for ISA implementation ………………………………………………………… 146
7.2.4 Developing an ISA implementation policy ………………………………………………………. 147
7.2.5 Evaluation of a Dynamic Adaptive ISA implementation policy ………………………….. 152
7.2.6 Comparing APM to current policymaking practice …………………………………………… 153
7.2.7 Answering the main research question. ……………………………………………………………. 154
7.3 Conclusions in relation to the social and scientific aims …………………………………….. 154
7.3.1 Social aims…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 154
7.3.2 Scientific aims ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 154
7.4 Reflection and suggestions for future research …………………………………………………. 155
7.4.1 Reflection on the individual chapters ………………………………………………………………. 155
7.4.2 A research agenda for ISA …………………………………………………………………………….. 158
7.4.3 A research agenda for Adaptive Policymaking …………………………………………………. 158
7.4.4 Clearing the road for ISA implementation? ……………………………………………………… 160
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 161
Summary Clearing the Road for ISA Implementation?…………………………………………… 163
Samenvatting De weg vrijmaken voor ISA implementatie? …………………………………….. 175
About the Author ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 187
TRAIL Thesis Series ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 189
Abstract
Intelligente Snelheid Assistent of ISA is de benaming voor een categorie in-vehicle systemen die bestuurder helpen om zich te houden aan de lokale snelheidslimiet (m.a.w. die er voor zorgen dat bestuurder niet te hard rijdt, of er zelfs voor zorgen dat de bestuurder nooit meer te hard kan rijden). De vele (veld) testen die in het verleden gedaan wijzen er allemaal op dat ISA een grote bijdrage zou kunnen leveren aan de verkeersveiligheid. Ondanks het grote potentieel (experts schatten dat een begrenzende ISA in Nederland jaarlijks meer dan 200 doden kan schelen) is ISA tot op de dag van vandaag niet geïmplementeerd. Om beter om te gaan met de onzekerheden die nog spelen rond de implementatie van ISA systemen en om uiteindelijk te komen tot duurzaam beleid met betrekking tot ISA implementatie wordt in het proefschrift een conceptuele aanpak gehanteerd die Adaptive Policymaking (APM) heet. APM is erop gericht om adaptief beleid te maken door vooraf na te denken over de onzekerheden die spelen en de manier waarop het beleid kan falen. Vervolgens wordt het beleid adaptief gemaakt door te bepalen op welke manier er gereageerd moet worden om de uiteindelijke beleidsdoelen te halen (beleid aanpassen, flankerend beleid maken, etc.). In dit proefschrift wordt onderzocht of APM geschikt is voor het ontwerpen van ISA implementatiebeleid voor Nederland. De resultaten laten zien dat ISA klaar is om geïmplementeerd te worden. Beleidsmakers zouden om kunnen gaan met de onzekerheden die spelen door op kleine schaal te beginnen met implementeren en als de tijd verstrijkt geleidelijk het beleid aan te passen aan de nieuwe kennis en omstandigheden (adaptief beleid). APM is een beleidsaanpak die daarbij zou kunnen helpen. De resultaten laten zien dat het ontwerpen van adaptief ISA implementatiebeleid met behulp van APM de kansen vergroot dat het ontworpen beleid, ondanks de onzekerheden die er nog zijn, de vooraf gedefinieerde beleidsdoelen haalt (in het geval van ISA een reductie in het aantal verkeersdoden, gewonden en ongevallen met schade). Desondanks geven de geraadpleegde experts ook aan dat ontwikkelde adaptieve ISA implementatiebeleid hoogstwaarschijnlijk strandt in de besluitvormingsfase (dus dat er geen beslissing over implementatie kan worden genomen). Dit komt omdat het expliciteren van de onzekerheden die nog spelen rondom de implementatie van ISA ertoe zal leiden dat politici helemaal geen beslissing kunnen of durven nemen. ? Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) is an in-vehicle system that supports the driver of a vehicle in complying with the local speed limit (In other words, that helps the driver to comply with the legal speed limit, or make sure the driver cannot drive faster than the speed limit). There is strong evidence that ISA has a great potential when it comes to contributing to traffic safety. However, ISA implementation is being delayed because of many uncertainties. Despite the large potential (it is estimated that a restricting ISA could save up to 200 lives per year in the Netherlands), ISA systems are not implemented yet. This dissertation focuses on the application of a conceptual approach called Adaptive Policy making (APM). APM is designed to develop policies that can be adapted over time, adaptive policies change as the external conditions change. In this dissertation the applicability of APM for ISA implementation in the Netherlands is researched, by operationalizing, applying, and evaluating the APM approach (for the case of ISA). The results show that ISA is ready to be implemented. Policymakers can deal with the uncertainties that still exist by starting to implement ISA on a small scale, and, as time proceeds, gradually adapt the ISA implementation policy to changing conditions. APM is an approach that could support that process. The results also show that designing adaptive ISA implementation policies with APM increases the chance that the policy will be a success, and reaches the predefined goals. (In case of ISA these goals would be: a reduction in the number of accidents, reduction of fatalities due to road accidents, etc.) Despite this experts also indicate that the developed adaptive ISA implementation policy will cause difficulties in the decision making process, and probably results in the fact that decision makers cannot take a decision at all. (It is indicated that making the uncertainties that surround ISA implementation explicit will be counter-productive for the decision making process).
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