Table of Contents

List of Figures ix
List of Tables xiii
Acknowledgements xv
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Background and motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1. Decarbonisation of the power sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.2. Challenges from the integration of renewable energy . . . . . 2
1.1.3. The demand for transmission network capacity . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.4. Problem statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2. Modelling the European electricity system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3. Modelling approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4. Research questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5. Thesis structure and reading guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2. EUPowerDispatch 13
2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2. Model description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.1. Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2.2. Cross-border transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2.3. Mathematical formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.3. Scenario data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3.1. Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3.2. Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3.3. Variable Generation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.3.4. Cross-Border Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.4. Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3. The Future Needs for European Cross-Border Transmission Capacity 39
3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
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Contents
3.2. Expected evolution of the European power system up to 2025 . . . . 40
3.3. The needs for cross-border transmission investment in Europe by 2025 47
3.4. Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.4.1. Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.4.2. CO2 Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.4.3. RES Penetration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4. The Impact of Energy Storage on the Need for Cross-Border Transmission 55
4.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.2. Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.3. Results & discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4.4. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
5. The Impact of Demand Response on the Need for Cross-Border Transmission 67
5.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.2. Methodology and Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
5.3. The impact of controlling the charging of EVs and of cross-border
transmission capacity on RES integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
5.4. The impact of the CO2 price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
6. Electricity Imports from North Africa 89
6.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
6.2. Overview of the Euro-Mediterranean framework . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
6.3. Methodology and Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
6.4. Results & Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.4.1. Main results from the Italian analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
6.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
7. European Transmission Network Reliability 103
7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
7.2. European power grid reliability indicators, what do they really tell? 104
7.2.1. Reliability characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
7.2.2. Relations with topological characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . 107
7.2.3. Improving the methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
7.3. Cross-border electricity transmission capacity for network reliability 113
7.3.1. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
vi
7.3.2. Results & Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
7.4. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
8. Conclusions 121
8.1. Conclusions & Policy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
8.2. Reflections & scientific recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
A. GAMS Code for EUPowerDispatch’s Weekly Model 131
B. Installed Generation Capacities 141
C. Cross-Border Transmission Capacities 149
Glossary 153
Bibliography 157
Summary 167
Samenvatting 175
List of Publications 185
Curriculum Vitae 187
NGInfra PhD Thesis Series on Infrastructures 189

Abstract

An increase in cross-border electricity flows is foreseen in Europe in the coming decades due to large-scale penetration of renewable energy, the electrical integration of the Euro-Mediterranean region, the electrification of transport, and possible shifts in electricity generation dispatch caused by the evolution of CO2 prices. This dissertation explores the impacts of possible changes in electricity generation and demand patterns on the need for cross-border transmission investment in Europe. The analysis is performed with EUPowerDispatch, a minimum-cost unit commitment dispatch model of the European electricity system which was developed by the author and which constitutes one of the main products of his research. It is concluded that the cross-border transmission investment plans that are foreseen by ENTSO-E by 2025 are adequate given the expected evolution of the European power system. However, in order to reach the challenging European power system decarbonisation goal, significantly more cross-border transmission investment is needed, in addition to much stronger decarbonisation policies.

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