Table of Contents
Preface………………………………………………………………………………………………….. i
Table of Contents ………………………………………………………………………………….. iii
1 . Introduction: Understanding complex infrastructure systems ………………. 1
1.1 Design of next generation infrastructures ……………………………………………………. 4
1.1.1 Next generation infrastructures ……………………………………………………………………………….4
1.1.2 Planning and design of infrastructures………………………………………………………………………7
1.1.3 Lack of understanding about infrastructures ……………………………………………………………..8
1.2 Complex systems: on the edge between order and chaos……………………………….. 9
1.2.1 Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)……………………………………………………………………………..9
1.2.2 Complicated and complex systems …………………………………………………………………………10
1.2.3 Infrastructures as complex adaptive systems …………………………………………………………..10
1.3 Tools for understanding complex systems………………………………………………….. 11
1.3.1 Modelling socio‐technical systems………………………………………………………………………….12
1.3.2 Gaming: simulating socio‐technical systems…………………………………………………………….13
1.3.3 Serious gaming …………………………………………………………………………………………………….14
1.3.4 Future policy makers …………………………………………………………………………………………….15
1.4 Gaming as a way to understand complex infrastructure systems……………………. 16
1.4.1 Research questions……………………………………………………………………………………………….18
1.4.2 General research approach ……………………………………………………………………………………19
1.5 Outline of the dissertation ………………………………………………………………………. 22
2 . Towards a framework for understanding infrastructures……………………..23
2.1 Socio‐technical infrastructure systems ………………………………………………………. 24
2.1.1 Characteristics of infrastructures ……………………………………………………………………………24
2.1.2 Unravelling infrastructure systems………………………………………………………………………….26
2.1.3 Conflicting values and uncertain behaviour ……………………………………………………………..28
2.1.4 Social and technical complexity of infrastructures…………………………………………………….30
2.2 Different perspectives on systems…………………………………………………………….. 30
2.2.1 A brief overview of Systems Thinking………………………………………………………………………31
2.2.2 Complex adaptive systems: an evolutionary perspective …………………………………………..32
2.2.3 Social networks and complex adaptive systems ……………………………………………………….35
2.2.4 Complex adaptive systems in a multi‐actor context ………………………………………………….38
2.3 Framework for complex adaptive systems …………………………………………………. 39
iv
2.3.1 System environment……………………………………………………………………………………………..40
2.3.2 Agent level…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..40
2.3.3 Network level ………………………………………………………………………………………………………43
2.3.4 System level…………………………………………………………………………………………………………46
2.3.5 Connecting the levels into a framework…………………………………………………………………..50
2.4 Infrastructures as complex adaptive systems ……………………………………………… 51
2.4.1 The framework applied to infrastructures ……………………………………………………………….51
2.4.2 Understanding infrastructure complexity in terms of design………………………………………55
2.5 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 60
3 . Gaming complex systems as a way of understanding infrastructures……..63
3.1 Serious gaming: a new look at simulation games…………………………………………. 64
3.1.1 From games to serious games………………………………………………………………………………..65
3.1.2 Opportunities for serious gaming……………………………………………………………………………70
3.1.3 Serious gaming in planning and design processes……………………………………………………..72
3.2 Serious games as complex adaptive systems ………………………………………………. 72
3.2.1 The game world as a complex adaptive system ………………………………………………………..73
3.2.2 Player level ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….75
3.2.3 Rules and interaction level …………………………………………………………………………………….77
3.2.4 System state level…………………………………………………………………………………………………79
3.2.5 The game world……………………………………………………………………………………………………80
3.2.6 Complex adaptive serious games ……………………………………………………………………………81
3.3 Serious gaming as a way of understanding infrastructures ……………………………. 82
3.3.1 Gaming as a supportive tool…………………………………………………………………………………..82
3.3.2 Understanding infrastructures: the observer perspective ………………………………………….86
3.3.3 Understanding infrastructures: the player perspective ……………………………………………..89
3.4 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 95
4 . Research approach for using gaming to evaluate the understanding of
complexity ……………………………………………………………………………………………97
4.1 The design research approach………………………………………………………………….. 98
4.1.1 The selection of the Maasvlakte 2 case……………………………………………………………………99
4.1.2 Design science, design research and action research ………………………………………………100
4.1.3 Reasons for choosing a design research approach…………………………………………………..101
4.1.4 Steps of the design approach ……………………………………………………………………………….102
4.1.5 Limitations of the design research approach ………………………………………………………….104
4.2 Steps 1 and 2: Problem and choice for a serious game………………………………… 105
4.2.1 Problem analysis: Maasvlakte 2 ……………………………………………………………………………105
4.2.2 Justification of a serious game ……………………………………………………………………………..106
4.3 Step 3: Game development……………………………………………………………………. 107
4.3.1 An analytical and creative process ………………………………………………………………………..107
4.3.2 Starting up………………………………………………………………………………………………………….109
v
4.3.3 Conceptualization……………………………………………………………………………………………….109
4.3.4 Specification ………………………………………………………………………………………………………110
4.3.5 Game validation………………………………………………………………………………………………….111
4.4 Step 4: System understanding………………………………………………………………… 112
4.4.1 Complex system framework…………………………………………………………………………………112
4.4.2 Collection of data on system understanding…………………………………………………………..114
4.4.3 Data analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………114
4.4.4 Limitations …………………………………………………………………………………………………………115
4.5 Step 5: Individual understanding…………………………………………………………….. 115
4.5.1 Formal Logic Model …………………………………………………………………………………………….116
4.5.2 Collection of data on individual understanding……………………………………………………….121
4.5.3 Data analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………121
4.5.4 Limitations …………………………………………………………………………………………………………124
4.6 Introduction to the empirical chapters …………………………………………………….. 124
5 . Maasvlakte 2: From open sea to port area ………………………………………127
5.1 The co‐evolution of the Port of Rotterdam……………………………………………….. 128
5.1.1 From the 13th century through the 1970s ………………………………………………………………128
5.1.2 The process of co‐evolution continues…………………………………………………………………..129
5.2 Rotterdam Mainport development project ………………………………………………. 130
5.2.1 A short project overview ……………………………………………………………………………………..130
5.2.2 Reducing the complexity: three sub projects………………………………………………………….134
5.2.3 Social environment……………………………………………………………………………………………..136
5.3 Land reclamation: Maasvlakte 2……………………………………………………………… 138
5.3.1 Procedures and permission for the land reclamation project……………………………………138
5.3.2 Designing new land……………………………………………………………………………………………..141
5.3.3 Flexible and controlled development…………………………………………………………………….145
5.3.4 The future: further exploitation ……………………………………………………………………………147
5.4 Maasvlakte 2: a complex infrastructure project…………………………………………. 148
5.4.1 Maasvlakte 2 as a complex adaptive system…………………………………………………………..148
5.4.2 Problems and dilemmas of the Maasvlakte 2 project ………………………………………………149
5.4.3 Dealing with complexity ………………………………………………………………………………………151
5.5 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 152
6 . Building a complex system in a game……………………………………………..153
6.1 Organization and boundaries …………………………………………………………………. 154
6.1.1 Starting situation ………………………………………………………………………………………………..154
6.1.2 System boundaries of Maasvlakte 2………………………………………………………………………154
6.1.3 Timeline of development……………………………………………………………………………………..155
6.2 Conceptualization: reducing and developing a complex system……………………. 156
6.2.1 Port managers ……………………………………………………………………………………………………156
6.2.2 Realization of the Maasvlakte 2 area …………………………………………………………………….157
vi
6.2.3 Exploitation of the Maasvlakte 2 area……………………………………………………………………158
6.2.4 Performance indicators ……………………………………………………………………………………….159
6.2.5 Challenge to combine the processes……………………………………………………………………..160
6.3 SimPort‐MV2: create your own future……………………………………………………… 161
6.3.1 General game set‐up …………………………………………………………………………………………..161
6.3.2 Round 1: selecting the strategy…………………………………………………………………………….162
6.3.3 Round 2 and beyond: building and commercial activities…………………………………………164
6.3.4 The performances of the management team …………………………………………………………166
6.4 Validation and testing …………………………………………………………………………… 167
6.4.1 Verification ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..167
6.4.2 Realism of the game ……………………………………………………………………………………………167
6.4.3 Playability of the game ………………………………………………………………………………………..170
6.5 Reflection on game design for understanding complexity……………………………. 174
6.5.1 Focus on strategic processes ………………………………………………………………………………..174
6.5.2 Game development as a co‐evolving system ………………………………………………………….175
6.5.3 Socio‐technical system set‐up ………………………………………………………………………………175
6.5.4 Double function of serious games…………………………………………………………………………176
6.6 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 177
7 . Looking into the future: Complex system behaviour………………………….179
7.1 Solution space: large diversity in Maasvlakte 2 areas …………………………………. 180
7.1.1 Financial performance…………………………………………………………………………………………180
7.1.2 Spatial performance ……………………………………………………………………………………………181
7.1.3 Process performance…………………………………………………………………………………………..183
7.1.4 The solution space………………………………………………………………………………………………186
7.2 Explanation of the solution space……………………………………………………………. 187
7.2.1 Consequences of strategic decisions……………………………………………………………………..187
7.2.2 Game play processes …………………………………………………………………………………………..191
7.2.3 Robustness and instability……………………………………………………………………………………192
7.3 SimPort‐MV2 as a complex adaptive system …………………………………………….. 195
7.3.1 SimPort‐MV2 at the agent level ……………………………………………………………………………196
7.3.2 SimPort‐MV2 at the network level ………………………………………………………………………..197
7.3.3 SimPort‐MV2 at the system level ………………………………………………………………………….198
7.4 Implications for the Port of Rotterdam…………………………………………………….. 199
7.4.1 Performance of Maasvlakte 2 in 2037……………………………………………………………………199
7.4.2 Sensitivity of strategic choices………………………………………………………………………………200
7.4.3 Synchronization of parallel processes ……………………………………………………………………201
7.5 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 202
7.5.1 SimPort‐MV2 as a complex adaptive system ………………………………………………………….203
7.5.2 From game world to real world…………………………………………………………………………….204
8 . Playing SimPort‐MV2 and learning about complex systems………………..205
vii
8.1 Introduction of the players…………………………………………………………………….. 206
8.1.1 General data set …………………………………………………………………………………………………207
8.1.2 Different groups of players…………………………………………………………………………………..207
8.2 Perceived learning by playing SimPort‐MV2 ……………………………………………… 211
8.2.1 General learning experiences……………………………………………………………………………….212
8.2.2 Declarative knowledge ………………………………………………………………………………………..213
8.2.3 Procedural knowledge…………………………………………………………………………………………215
8.2.4 Strategic knowledge ……………………………………………………………………………………………217
8.2.5 Comparison between the professionals…………………………………………………………………219
8.2.6 Comparison between professionals and students …………………………………………………..220
8.2.7 Conclusions about learning experiences ………………………………………………………………..221
8.3 Relations between input, process and outcome ………………………………………… 223
8.3.1 Relations between process and outcome ………………………………………………………………224
8.3.2 Relations between input and process ……………………………………………………………………230
8.3.3 Relations between input and outcome ………………………………………………………………….240
8.4 An inside perspective on understanding complex adaptive systems……………… 242
8.4.1 Perceived learning of playing SimPort‐MV2……………………………………………………………242
8.4.2 Influence of input and game play variables on the learning outcomes ………………………243
9 . Is it only a game? Conclusions and recommendations ……………………….247
9.1 Overview of the research ………………………………………………………………………. 247
9.2 Answering the research questions…………………………………………………………… 249
9.2.1 Theoretical exploration ……………………………………………………………………………………….249
9.2.2 Empirical exploration…………………………………………………………………………………………..254
9.2.3 Conclusions about serious gaming for understanding complex infrastructure systems..259
9.3 Reflection …………………………………………………………………………………………… 260
9.3.1 Critical remarks from a research perspective………………………………………………………….261
9.3.2 Critical remarks from a gamer’s perspective…………………………………………………………..262
9.3.3 Critical remarks from a policy perspective ……………………………………………………………..263
9.4 Implications for gaming in practice………………………………………………………….. 265
9.4.1 Community of policy‐ and decision makers in infrastructures…………………………………..265
9.4.2 Community of gamers and game researchers…………………………………………………………267
9.5 ‘Game over’ or ‘Ready for the next level’?………………………………………………… 270
References ………………………………………………………………………………………….275
Appendix A. Pre questionnaire SimPort‐MV2 ……………………………….289
Appendix B. Post questionnaire SimPort‐MV2………………………………293
Appendix C. Quantitative results process variables ……………………….299
C.1 Computer interaction……………………………………………………………………………. 299
C.2 Engagement………………………………………………………………………………………… 301
viii
C.3 Personal interaction……………………………………………………………………………… 302
C.4 Correlations between process factors and the learning outcome …………………. 303
C.5 Factor analysis learning outcome ……………………………………………………………. 307
Appendix D. Quantitative results input variables ………………………….309
D.1 Player characteristics ……………………………………………………………………………. 309
D.2 Factor analysis game characteristics………………………………………………………… 315
D.3 Facilitation and embedding……………………………………………………………………. 316
D.4 Correlations between input variables………………………………………………………. 317
D.5 Correlations between input factors and process factors ……………………………… 319
D.6 Correlation between input factors and learning outcome……………………………. 322
Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………….337
Samenvatting ………………………………………………………………………………………347
Curriculum Vitae ………………………………………………………………………………….357
NGInfra PhD Thesis Series on Infrastructures…………………………………………….359
Abstract
Voor dit proefschrift is geen abstract beschikbaar.
Roadmap onderwerpen
Veerkrachtig ontwerp en onderhoud