Table of Contents
Preface v
Summary xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Uncertainty and the planning of infrastructure 1
1.2 Research questions 2
1.3 Research design 3
1.4 Outline of the thesis 4
Chapter 2 Drinking water systems in the Netherlands: planning and
organization 7
Chapter 3. Uncertainty, planning and decision-making; overview and focus
13
3.1 Uncertainty literature 13
3.2 Defining uncertainty 14
3.3 Uncertainty and the use of models 16
3.4 Uncertainty and decision-making 17
3.4.1 Attitudes in decision-making 17
3.4.2 Actions to handle uncertainty: Signposts 18
3.4.3 Actions to handle uncertainty: options 19
3.4.3 Actions to handle uncertainty: hedging 22
3.5 Planning 22
3.5.1 Life cycles and planning processes 23
3.5.2 The link between planning and design 24
3.6 Focus in research 26
3.6.1 Focus in respect to uncertainty 27
3.6.2 Focus with respect to uncertainty and the use of models 28
3.6.4 Focus with respect to uncertainty and decision-making 28
3.6.3 Focus with respect to planning 29
3.7 Final remarks 29
Chapter 4. A systems approach to planning: introducing the descriptive
framework 31
4.1 Systems approach 31
4.2 The system and its boundaries 32
4.3 Unintended external input to the system 34
4.3.1 External influences 34
4.3.2 Identification of crucial external influences 35
4.4 Outcomes of interest 37
4.5 Strategies 38
4.6 Uncertainties about systems, external influences, tactics, and outcomes of interest
39
4.6.1 Uncertainties about the structure of a system 39
4.6.2 Uncertainties about external influences 39
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4.6.3 Uncertainties about future preferences 39
4.6.4 Uncertainties about the effect of tactics 40
4.7 Final remarks 40
Chapter 5. Success factors in dealing with uncertainty: introducing the
normative framework 41
5.1 Normative framework 41
5.2 Analyzing the system 43
5.2.1 Choosing system boundaries 44
5.2.3 Knowledge about inputs and outcomes 46
5.2.4 Assumptions about a system and its surroundings 47
5.3 Taking action 48
5.3.1 Signposts 48
5.3.2 Options 49
5.4 Final remarks 49
Chapter 6. Introduction to the case study research 51
6.1 Purpose of the case study research and link with the rest of the research 51
6.2 Using case studies 52
6.3 Number and selection of cases 52
6.4 The outline of the case study research 54
6.5 Specification 55
6.5.1 Specification of the descriptive framework 55
6.5.2 Specification of the normative framework 57
6.6 Data collection 59
6.7 Boundaries of the case study research 60
6.8 Outline of the case study reports 60
Chapter 7. Case 1. PIM 61
7.1 Historical description 1972-2000 62
7.2 Selection of important rounds 66
7.3 Round 1: Selection of tactics, 1989-1990 66
7.3.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 66
7.3.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 66
7.3.3 Choice 67
7.4 Round 2 Halting of PIM, 1993-2000 67
7.4.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 68
7.4.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 68
7.4.3 Choice 69
7.5 Characterizing the rounds 69
7.5.1 System and relationships 69
7.5.2 Inputs and outputs 70
7.5.3 Assumptions 71
7.5.4 Options 71
Chapter 8. Case 2. OEDI 73
8.1 Historical description 1972-2000 74
8.2 Selection of important rounds 76
8.3 Round 1: Selection of tactics, 1972-1992 77
8.3.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 77
ix
8.3.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 77
8.3.3 Choice 77
8.4 Round 2. Halting OEDI, 1996-2000 78
8.4.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 78
8.4.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 78
8.4.3 Choice 79
8.5 Characterizing the rounds 79
8.5.1 System and relationships 79
8.5.2 Inputs and outputs 80
8.5.3 Assumptions 80
8.5.4 Options 80
Chapter 9. Case 3. Purification facility Jan Lagrand 81
9.1 Historical description 1973- 1999 82
9.2 Selection of important rounds 83
9.3 Round 1. Building extra capacity? Late 1980s 84
9.3.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 84
9.3.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 84
9.3.3 Choice 84
9.4 Round 2. Which purification process? 1994 85
9.4.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 85
9.4.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 85
9.4.3 Choice 85
9.5 Characterizing the rounds 86
9.5.1 System and relationships 86
9.5.2 Inputs and outputs 86
9.5.3 Assumptions 86
9.5.4 Options 86
Chapter 10. Case 4. The Lek-duin/ Maas-duin projects 89
10.1 Historical description 1874-1996 90
10.2 Selection of important rounds 91
10.3 Round 1. Lek- duin, 1939 92
10.3.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 92
10.3.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 92
10.3.3 Choice 92
10.4 Round 2. Maas- duin, 1965 93
10.4.1 External influences and outcomes of interest 93
10.4.2 Strategies and tactics and outcomes of interest 93
10.4.3 Choice 94
10.5 Characterizing the rounds 94
10.5.1 System and relationships 94
10.5.2 Inputs and outputs 94
10.5.3 Assumptions 95
10.5.4 Options 95
Chapter 11. Case study results 97
11.1 Systems and relationships 99
11.3 Inputs and outputs 100
11.3.1 External influences 100
x
11.3.2 Tactics 100
11.3.3 Outcomes of interest 101
11.4 Assumptions 101
11.5 Signposts 102
11.6 Options 103
11.7 Planning processes and the outcome of the projects 103
11.8 Dealing with uncertainty in the past and in the present 104
Chapter 12. Conclusions and reflection 107
12.1 Reflections on the research set-up and the theory that was used 107
12.1.1 Reflection on the research 107
12.1.2 Reflection on the descriptive framework 107
12.1.3 Reflection on the normative framework 109
12.1.4 Reflection on the case studies 109
12.2 Lessons learned from the cases 110
12.2.1 The inclusion or exclusion of elements from the analysis 110
12.2.2 Making prognoses and assumptions 112
12.2.3 Taking action: re-activity versus pro-activity 114
12.2.4 Limits of the normative framework 116
12.3 Management of uncertainty: broadening the perspective 118
References 121
Appendix A Searching for assumptions in texts 129
Appendix B Participants to the workshop and interviewees 131
Samenvatting (Dutch summary) 132
Curriculum vitae 135
Abstract
Infrastructures, generally designed to have a long service life, are particularly vulnerable to long term changes that can influence their functioning. Therefore it is important that uncertainties are taken into account as much as possible from the beginning of the planning process of infrastructures. This thesis focuses on drinking water infrastructure. This type of infrastructure is characterized by a long life expectancy. Changes in the supply of materials (for instance source water, energy, space for building underground networks), technology, and demand for the end product can be expected, but are difficult to predict. These changes can lead to high cost for society when they lead to system failure or obsoleteness of the existing infrastructure. The main objective of the research was to answer the following question: Can the identification and handling of uncertainties in the Dutch drinking water infrastructure planning process be improved? And if so, how? To answer this question, first a literature study was performed, which was used as a basis to develop both a descriptive and a normative framework for the analysis of case studies. These frameworks then were used to analyze four case studies ex post. Finally, a workshop was used to discuss the overall results with representatives from the drinking water field. The descriptive framework is based on an approach in which a system is described as well as the influences on that system. These influences can come from external variables that cannot be influenced by a decision-maker and from tactics that a decision-maker can use. The effect of both on the system can be observed in changes in the outcomes of interest that a decision-maker has. The normative framework was developed to evaluate the success of drinking water companies in their efforts to deal with uncertainty. It is based on a causal chain of actions in a planning process that should lead to successfully dealing with uncertainty. It was chosen to use indicators of success within the causal chain as proxies for the overall success of a drinking water company in dealing with uncertainty. For each step in the causal chain a indicator of successfully performing this step was identified. The idea was that if each step is performed well, overall success in dealing with uncertainty will follow. Four cases were studied in retrospect, of which three were recent and one was further in the past. The most important conclusion of the cases was that drinking water companies are very aware of uncertainties and a lot of action is taken to handle them. However, some suggestions can be made to improve the analysis and handling of uncertainties. Firstly, the case studies showed that not all potential critical external influences received the same amount of attention. Political, social en technological considerations were found the most crucial in the cases that were studied. Political and social influences were also found to be most difficult to handle. Secondly, some external influences were recognized in the cases, but were not included in the analysis, because not enough was known about them. For instance in the case of the success of drinking water saving actions this external variable showed to be critical. If this influence would have been considered in more detail maybe other decisions would have been made. Thirdly, the cases showed that assumptions were made more explicit after they had failed. If they had been made more explicit beforehand maybe decisions to change policy could have been made sooner.
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