Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1-1 Research motivation…………………………………………………………………………………………. 1
1-2 Research background ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 2
1-3 Overview of research objective, research questions and scope ………………………………. 3
1-4 The research approach………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
1-5 Scientific contributions of the thesis research………………………………………………………. 5
1-6 Practical relevance of the research ……………………………………………………………………… 5
1-7 Thesis outline ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 6

2 CLASSICAL URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK DESIGN …………… 11
2-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11
2-2 Transportation system and its components ………………………………………………………… 12
2-3 Planning process in public transport networks……………………………………………………. 14
2-4 Urban public transport network characteristics…………………………………………………… 15
2-5 Public transport network design problem…………………………………………………………… 18
2-5-1 Design problem type ………………………………………………………………………………. 18
2-5-2 Public transport network design complexities and dilemmas ……………………….. 19
2-5-3 Literature on the network design problem …………………………………………………. 21
2-5-4 Public transport network design objective …………………………………………………. 22
2-5-5 General formulation ……………………………………………………………………………….. 23
2-5-6 Formulating network design objective functions ………………………………………… 24
2-5-7 Synthesis……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26
2-6 Summary and Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………. 26

3 STOCHASTIC EVENTS IN URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORKS…. 29
3-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 29
3-2 Identifying variations in transport networks ………………………………………………………. 30
3-2-1 Variations in traveller’s behaviour……………………………………………………………. 31
3-2-2 Variations in infrastructure networks………………………………………………………… 35
3-2-3 Variations in transport service networks……………………………………………………. 36
3-2-4 Synthesis……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 36
3-3 Classification of stochastic events…………………………………………………………………….. 37
3-4 Major discrete-event characteristics………………………………………………………………….. 40
3-5 Estimating time interval and duration of events………………………………………………….. 42
3-6 Events’ impacts on public transport operation……………………………………………………. 43
3-7 Transit operator adjustments ……………………………………………………………………………. 46
3-8 Summary and Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………. 48

4 IMPACTS OF STOCHASTIC EVENTS ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT
NETWORK PERFORMANCE…………………………………………………………………….. 51
4-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 51
4-2 Impacts of public transport network variations on service performance ………………… 52
4-3 Impacts of service performance variations on travellers’ trips ……………………………… 56
4-4 Public transport service reliability…………………………………………………………………….. 58
4-5 Impacts of public transport service reliability on public transport passengers’
behaviour………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 59
4-5-1 Reliability appreciation by travellers ………………………………………………………… 60
4-5-2 Impacts of transit service reliability on travellers’ choice behaviour …………….. 60
4-6 Summary and Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………. 62

5 URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK DESIGN AND RELIABILITY.. 65
5-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 65
5-2 Reliability and Robustness………………………………………………………………………………. 66
5-3 Reliability improvement in public transport systems…………………………………………… 70
5-3-1 Prevention-oriented approaches ……………………………………………………………….. 70
5-3-2 Coping-oriented approaches…………………………………………………………………….. 74
5-3-3 Synthesis……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 76
5-4 Including reliability in public transport network design ………………………………………. 77
5-4-1 Reliability and new public transport network design dilemmas ……………………. 77
5-4-2 Including reliability in the public transport network design objective function . 80
5-4-3 Conceptual comparisons between models and system properties in reality ……. 84
5-4-4 The stochastic public transport network design modelling framework ………….. 86
5-5 Summary and Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………. 89

6 ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOUR AND RELIABILITY ………………………………… 91
6-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 91
6-2 Classical route choice problem ………………………………………………………………………… 92
6-2-1 Random utility maximization model…………………………………………………………. 92
6-2-2 Explicit route set generation…………………………………………………………………….. 95
6-3 Incorporating service reliability in route choice applications ……………………………….. 98
6-3-1 Extending route’s utility function to include travel time reliability……………….. 99
6-3-2 Incorporating impacts of major discrete events into route choice models…….. 102
6-4 Summary and Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 104

7 IMPACTS OF RELIABILITY ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORKS
ASSESSMENT …………………………………………………………………………………………… 107
7-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 107
7-2 Modelling framework……………………………………………………………………………………. 108
7-2-1 General setup……………………………………………………………………………………….. 109
7-2-2 Phase I: deterministic perspective …………………………………………………………… 109
7-2-3 Phase II: Stochastic perspective ……………………………………………………………… 111
7-3 Selection and setup of experiments…………………………………………………………………. 113
7-3-1 Service supply pattern and properties …………………………………………………….. 113
7-3-2 Transit demand pattern and behavioural parameters………………………………….. 115
7-3-3 Network performance……………………………………………………………………………. 116
7-4 Assumed characteristics of simulated events ……………………………………………………. 117
7-5 Network performance assessment…………………………………………………………………… 119
7-5-1 Cases…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 120
7-5-2 Synthesis……………………………………………………………………………………………… 128
7-5-3 Sensitivity analyses ………………………………………………………………………………. 129
7-6 Summary and Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 129

8 THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ON URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT
SERVICE RELIABILITY ………………………………………………………………………….. 133
8-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 133
8-2 Ring infrastructure design and corresponding cases………………………………………….. 134
8-3 Assessment of reliability impacts……………………………………………………………………. 136
8-3-1 Case 8-1: Ring infrastructure in the network with radial lines ……………………. 136
8-3-2 Case 8-2: Ring infrastructure in the network with transversal lines …………….. 139
8-4 Summary and Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 140

9 ENHANCING RELIABILITY IN URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT
NETWORKS ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 143
9-1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 143
9-2 The Hague tram network characteristics………………………………………………………….. 144
9-3 Assessing service reliability of The Hague tram Network………………………………….. 146
9-4 Enhancing service reliability by reducing service network vulnerability……………… 151
9-5 Creating flexibility in the service network……………………………………………………….. 152
9-5-1 Case 9-1: The bypass…………………………………………………………………………….. 152
9-5-2 Case 9-2: The shortcut…………………………………………………………………………… 154
9-5-3 Case 9-3: The turning facility…………………………………………………………………. 155
9-6 Summary and Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 158

10 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………………………………. 161
10-1 Summary of the conducted research ……………………………………………………………….. 161
10-2 Addressing the research questions & Findings …………………………………………………. 164
10-2-1 Theme 1: The diagnosis issue ………………………………………………………………… 164
10-2-2 Theme 2: The development of public transport network planning ………………. 166
10-2-3 Theme 3: The implementation issue ……………………………………………………….. 168
10-3 Conclusions for urban public transport network assessment and design ………………. 170
10-4 Recommendations for further elaboration………………………………………………………… 171

REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 173
APPENDIX 1: LIST OF SYMBOLS………………………………………………………………………. 187
APPENDIX 2: IMPACTS OF MAJOR DISCRETE EVENTS ON SERVICE RUNNING
TIME VARIATIONS (AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY)………………………………. 191
APPENDIX 3: MODELLING AND EXPERIMENTAL SETUP …………………………….. 195
APPENDIX 4: SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR THE HYPOTHETICAL CASE
STUDY ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 211
APPENDIX 5: THE HAGUE TRAM NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS ………………….. 215
Summary ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 219
Samenvatting ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 223
Curriculum Vitae ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 227
TRAIL Thesis Series ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 229

Abstract

This research focuses on the influence of reliability of urban public transport services on network evaluation and network design. Public transport services suffer from all kind of disturbances, varying demand patterns, weather conditions, incidents, road works, et cetera. Current practice uses all kinds of operational measures to ensure the quality of the services despite of these disturbances. In network evaluation and network design, however, reliability is usually not considered. The research presents an extensive overview of phenomena affecting public transport service quality, as well as a framework and instrument to determine the influence of the network on reliability indicators and the total network performance. Using case studies a number of measures is analysed with respect to their effectiveness. This research demonstrates that already at the level of public transport service network design there are possibilities to improve service reliability: for example networks in which travellers have multiple options to travel to their destination and networks in which line lengths are limited. However, it is dependent on the specific situation whether this will lead to an improvement of the overall network performance as well. For rail-bound public transportation, for instance tram, is proves to be possible to implement smart infrastructure measures, for instance turning facilities and shortcuts, to improve both service reliability and total network performance.

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