Table of Contents

PREFACE ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3
CONTENTS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7
1. INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
1.1. CHINA’S GROWTH AND ITS NEXUS WITH TRANSPORT ……………………………………….. 11
1.1.1 Economic growth ………………………………………………………………………………… 11
1.1.2 Urban expansion …………………………………………………………………………………. 13
1.1.3 The city-transport relationship ……………………………………………………………. 16
1.2. PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN CHINA ………………………………………………………………….. 17
1.2.1 Traffic flows ………………………………………………………………………………………… 17
1.2.2 Investments ………………………………………………………………………………………… 19
1.2.3 Passenger transport modes …………………………………………………………………. 20
1.3. PROBLEM STATEMENT ……………………………………………………………………………………. 26
1.3.1 The crisis of Chinese cities ………………………………………………………………….. 26
1.3.2 Transit-oriented development as a solution ………………………………………… 27
1.3.3 Cities as self-organizing systems ………………………………………………………… 28
1.3.4 Research questions ……………………………………………………………………………… 29
1.4. BOOK OUTLINE ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 30
2. TOWARDS A FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING URBAN SYSTEMS .. 35
2.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35
2.2. CITIES AS COMPLEX SYSTEMS ………………………………………………………………………….. 36
2.2.1 A conceptual model of cities ……………………………………………………………….. 37
2.2.2 City evolution: self-organization versus deliberate intervention ………… 41
2.2.3 Behavioral characteristics of urban systems ………………………………………… 43
2.3. INTERVENTION VIA CITY PARAMETERS …………………………………………………………….. 45
2.4. THREE PERSPECTIVES FOR EXPLORING CITY PARAMETERS …………………………………. 49
2.4.1 Inspiration from Allison and Snellen ………………………………………………….. 49
2.4.2 The policy analyst perspective ……………………………………………………………. 51
2.4.3 The legal perspective ………………………………………………………………………….. 53
2.4.4 The political perspective ……………………………………………………………………… 55
2.5. CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 57
3. TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT ……………………………………………………… 59
3.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 59
3.2. TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT ………………………………………………………………… 60
3.2.1 What is transit-oriented development? ……………………………………………….. 60
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3.2.2 Costs and benefits of TOD ………………………………………………………………….. 63
3.2.3 Contingency of TOD …………………………………………………………………………… 65
3.2.4 TOD intermodality ……………………………………………………………………………… 68
3.3. WORLDWIDE EXPERIENCE WITH TOD ……………………………………………………………… 70
3.3.1 Centralized vs. decentralized planning and decision-making …………….. 70
3.3.2 Formal vs. informal coordination ……………………………………………………….. 71
3.3.3 Governmental vs. entrepreneurial leadership …………………………………….. 72
3.3.4 Compact vs. loose land use and urban design …………………………………….. 74
3.3.5 Transit vs. automobile priority ……………………………………………………………. 75
3.4. TOD PRECONDITIONS AND CONDUCIVE INSTITUTIONAL INCENTIVES ………………… 77
3.4.1 Land use ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 77
3.4.2 Urban design ………………………………………………………………………………………. 78
3.4.3 Constraints on automobile use ……………………………………………………………. 79
3.4.4 Transit service qualities ………………………………………………………………………. 80
3.4.5 Urban governance ………………………………………………………………………………. 81
3.4.6 Real estate market ………………………………………………………………………………. 82
3.5. CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 83
4. DALIAN PROFILE: THE CONTEXT OF THE CASE …………………………………….. 89
4.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 89
4.2. DALIAN URBANIZATION IN HISTORY ………………………………………………………………. 91
4.2.1 The Russian lease period (1898-1905) ………………………………………………….. 91
4.2.2 The Japanese occupation period (1905-1945) ………………………………………. 94
4.2.3 The PRC centrally-planned economy period (1945-1990) ……………………. 96
4.2.4 The early economic reform period (1990-2000) ……………………………………. 99
4.2.5 The economic transition period (2000-2010) ………………………………………. 103
4.3. DALIAN MOTORIZATION ……………………………………………………………………………… 106
4.3.1 Car-friendly policies ………………………………………………………………………….. 106
4.3.2 Expansion of urban roads …………………………………………………………………. 107
4.3.3 Fragmented transit services ………………………………………………………………. 107
4.4. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 108
5. A POLICY ANALYST PERSPECTIVE ………………………………………………………… 113
5.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………… 113
5.2. THE POLICY ANALYST LANDSCAPE IN DALIAN ………………………………………………. 113
5.3. THE COMPARISON OF POLICY MEASURES FOR URBAN TRANSPORT …………………… 115
5.3.1 Policy measure one: Imposing car restriction policies ……………………….. 116
5.3.2 Policy measure two: Reducing investments on urban expressways ….. 117
5.3.3 Policy measure three: Lifting fragmentation in transit services …………. 118
5.4. MODEL ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 119
5.4.1 Model assumptions …………………………………………………………………………… 120
5.4.2 Model formulation ……………………………………………………………………………. 121
5.4.3 Input data and algorithm ………………………………………………………………….. 124
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5.5. SCENARIOS …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 126
5.5.1 Scenario A: Status-Quo ……………………………………………………………………… 126
5.5.2 Scenario B: Fragmented transit system ……………………………………………… 128
5.5.3 Scenario C: Integrated transit system ………………………………………………… 130
5.6. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ………………………………………………………………………………. 133
5.7. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 135
6. A LEGAL PERSPECTIVE …………………………………………………………………………… 139
6.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………… 139
6.2. LEGAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN DALIAN .. 139
6.2.1 Legal framework……………………………………………………………………………….. 139
6.2.2 Statutory operating procedures ………………………………………………………… 144
6.2.3 Organizations and roles ……………………………………………………………………. 147
6.3. DEVELOPMENT REALITY OF URBAN LAND USE AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT ………….. 149
6.3.1 The co-planning of urban land use and rapid rail corridors ……………… 149
6.3.2 The development of station catchment areas …………………………………….. 152
6.3.3 The discrepancy between the reality and the legal guidelines …………… 157
6.4. SERVICE REALITY OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT ……………………………………………………….. 158
6.4.1 The outsource of public transport ……………………………………………………… 158
6.4.2 The operation of public transport ……………………………………………………… 161
6.4.3 The discrepancy between the reality and the legal guidelines …………… 166
6.5. THE REALITY OF THE MODAL SPLIT ……………………………………………………………….. 167
6.5.1 The deterioration of public transport modal split ……………………………… 167
6.5.2 Parking and public transport modal split ………………………………………….. 169
6.5.3 The discrepancy between the reality and the legal guidelines …………… 171
6.6. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 172
7. A POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE ……………………………………………………………………. 177
7.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………… 177
7.2. CHINESE POLITICS ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 178
7.3. CHINESE URBAN POLITICS ……………………………………………………………………………. 184
7.3.1 The shifting urban politics ………………………………………………………………… 184
7.3.2 The cadre evaluation system in reformed China ……………………………….. 186
7.3.3 The emergence of political achievement projects ………………………………. 189
7.4. DALIAN LRT-3 ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 191
7.4.1 The political context of the LRT-3 ……………………………………………………… 191
7.4.2 Three rounds of traffic demand forecasting ……………………………………… 194
7.4.3 Feasibility study and central approval ……………………………………………… 196
7.4.4 Ridership increases and what constitutes the success of the LRT-3 …… 197
7.5. DALIAN BRT-1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 200
7.5.1 The political context of the BRT-1 ……………………………………………………… 200
7.5.2 The entire BRT plan in Dalian and its realization ……………………………… 202
7.5.3 BRT marginalized and what constitutes the failure of the BRT-1 ………. 204
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7.6. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 207
8. PLANNING TOD IN COMPLEX URBAN SYSTEMS …………………………………. 211
8.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………… 211
8.2. RECAPPING “CITIES AS COMPLEX SYSTEMS” …………………………………………………… 212
8.2.1 Complexity and city evolution ………………………………………………………….. 212
8.2.2 City evolution by branching right parameters ………………………………….. 213
8.3. FULFILLING TOD CONDITIONS VIA CHANGING PARAMETER SCORES ……………….. 214
8.3.1 Dalian’s fulfillment of the TOD conditions ……………………………………….. 214
8.3.2 TOD conditions’ dependence on the parameters ………………………………. 216
8.4. PICKING UP THE RIGHT PARAMETERS …………………………………………………………….. 220
8.4.1 Ordering and enslaved parameters …………………………………………………… 220
8.4.2 Fast and slow parameters ………………………………………………………………….. 222
8.4.3 A typology of parameters …………………………………………………………………. 224
8.5. BRANCHING POSSIBLE CHANGES ON PARAMETER SCORES ……………………………….. 226
8.5.1 Branching “the role of municipal government” ………………………………… 226
8.5.2 Branching “the criteria of cadre evaluation” ……………………………………… 229
8.5.3 Branching “the role of politicians” ……………………………………………………. 231
8.5.4 Branching “the role of real estate developers” ………………………………….. 233
8.6. CONCLUSIONS …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 235
9. CONCLUSIONS AND REFLECTIONS ………………………………………………………. 237
9.1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………… 237
9.2. ANSWERING QUESTIONS ………………………………………………………………………………. 237
9.3. WHAT IF…? ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 245
9.4. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE AGENDA ……………………………………………… 251
APPENDIX A …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 255
APPENDIX B …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 259
APPENDIX C …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 261
REFERENCES ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 267
NEDERLANDSE SAMENVATTING ……………………………………………………………….. 293
ABOUT THE AUTHOR ……………………………………………………………………………………. 307

Abstract

In recent years most of the Chinese cities have shown a rapid decline in modal split of public transport as a consequence of rapid urbanization and motorization in the “socialist market economy”. It has been witnessed that cars flood into streets; road congestion, air pollution and traffic safety have become major problems in urban China. To ameliorate this situation and to promote sustainable urban traffic, many Chinese metropolises consider the concept of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), which is a model with worldwide successful experience in promoting public transport through integrating urban traffic with land use and creating a mobility environment where public transport is a much more respectable alternative to automobile travel. However, as the municipal governments embrace the concept, they were not aware of the fact that the realization of TOD requires fulfilling a number of preconditions, including a high level of land use diversity and density, beautiful urban design and cityscape, constraints on automobile use, good transit service qualities, good urban governance, and a real estate market that provides affordable and mixed types of housing. Even if the governments are informed of these conditions and seriously intend to meet these conditions, they are bound to deliberately enact comprehensive targeted policies and to mobilize substantial resources and support. However, after decades of economic reforms the Chinese cities have grown from comparatively simple systems that heavily depend on artificial intervention to complex and self-organizing systems that seem to be unplannable. In other words, it is very likely nowadays for the deliberate design for TOD to become dashed in complex cities. Therefore, rather than focusing on providing policy instruments and implementation recommendations of TOD for the Chinese local governments, this study sought to understand how cities are structured, what makes cities work, how to perceive cities as complex systems, and with such a perception how to plan cities (with respect to TOD). Accordingly, this book aims to pry open the complex urban systems firstly by formulating a conceptual model of cities and establishing 36 city parameters; and secondly by applying this framework into the case area, the Dalian city that is one of the most prosperous cities located in the eastern coastal region of China and has officially adopted TOD, whereby the empirical scores of the parameters are obtained. Based on the empirical scores, we draw lessons as to how the city parameters operate, how complex urban systems self-organize, and then what the implications are for deliberate design. The purpose of the lessons is to show elite politicians, policy analysts, public officials, legalists and also the wider public how TOD can be planned in contemporary cities in China.

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