Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………………………… v
Table of Contents ………………………………………………………………………………………. vii
List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………………………………. x
List of Tables …………………………………………………………………………………………… xiii
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 1
1.1. Research background ……………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2. Understanding the complexity of transitions ………………………………………….. 3
1.3. Relevance and objective ………………………………………………………………….. 4
1.4. Main research question …………………………………………………………………… 7
1.5. Reader’s guide: structure of the thesis …………………………………………………. 8
Chapter 2 Literature review for the analysis of transitions……………………………………… 11
2.1. The search for a definition ……………………………………………………………… 11
2.2. Technological perspective ………………………………………………………………. 14
2.3. Social perspective ………………………………………………………………………… 17
2.4. Institutional Economics perspective …………………………………………………… 19
2.5. Network perspective …………………………………………………………………….. 22
2.6. Synthesis of the literature study ………………………………………………………. 24
2.6.1. Significant features of each perspective …………………………………………. 24
2.6.2. Knowledge gaps of each perspective …………………………………………….. 26
2.6.3. Commonalities among the perspectives …………………………………………. 27
2.7. Conclusion of the literature review ……………………………………………………. 28
Chapter 3 A three-step approach to the analysis of transitions ……………………………….. 29
3.1. Analysing transitions with the SyNeA framework …………………………………… 30
3.1.1. Definition of transitions …………………………………………………………….. 30
3.1.2. Elements of the System-Network-Agent (SyNeA) framework ………………… 32
3.1.3. Mechanisms propelling transitions ………………………………………………… 37
3.2. Studying transitions with case studies ………………………………………………… 40
3.2.1. Justification for the use of case studies ………………………………………….. 41
3.2.2. Objective of the case studies ………………………………………………………. 42
3.2.3. Procedure for the case studies …………………………………………………….. 43
3.2.4. Report structure for the case studies …………………………………………….. 44
3.3. Qualitative modelling of transitions……………………………………………………. 45
3.3.1. From case study to causality ………………………………………………………. 48
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3.3.2. From causality to agents ……………………………………………………………. 49
3.4. Conclusion concerning the framework construction ………………………………… 51
Chapter 4 Case Study I: Brazil and the transition to sugarcane ethanol as fuel for light
vehicles ………………………………………………………………………………………… 53
4.1. Introduction to the Brazilian case ……………………………………………………… 53
4.2. Historical development of the introduction of ethanol in Brazil …………………… 54
4.2.1. Pre-Oil Crisis developments ………………………………………………………… 54
4.2.2. Start-up of the Pro-Alcohol Programme ………………………………………….. 55
4.2.3. Stabilisation of the Pro-Alcohol Programme …………………………………….. 55
4.2.4. Dismantling of the Pro-Alcohol Programme ……………………………………… 56
4.2.5. Rebirth of the bio-ethanol use and the bio-diesel programme ……………….. 56
4.3. A SyNeA characterisation of the Brazilian case ……………………………………… 57
4.3.1. Description of the Brazilian system conditions ………………………………….. 57
4.3.2. Description of the Brazilian network conditions…………………………………. 59
4.3.3. Description of the Brazilian agent conditions ……………………………………. 64
4.4. Evaluation of the Brazilian transition process ……………………………………….. 67
4.4.1. Triggers and supporting conditions for the Brazilian transition ………………. 67
4.4.2. Evolution to the current dynamic Brazilian equilibrium ………………………… 72
4.5. Learning opportunities and learning risks of the Brazilian case…………………… 76
Chapter 5 Case Study II: the Netherlands and the transition to a supply-chain approach for
household waste treatment …………………………………………………………………. 81
5.1. Introduction to the Dutch case ………………………………………………………… 81
5.2. Observing the Dutch historical developments ……………………………………….. 82
5.2.1. Exploration of waste disposal choices ……………………………………………. 83
5.2.2. Formalisation of new preferences for waste disposal ………………………….. 85
5.2.3. Dealing with the legacy of the previous policy on waste ……………………… 87
5.2.4. Towards a national harmonisation and the European Union’s policy influence
…………………………………………………………………………………………. 88
5.2.5. A new vision of the national waste disposal policy …………………………….. 89
5.3. A SyNeA characterisation of the Dutch Case ………………………………………… 90
5.3.1. Description of the Dutch system conditions …………………………………….. 90
5.3.2. Description of the Dutch network conditions ……………………………………. 92
5.3.3. Description of the Dutch agents conditions ……………………………………… 99
5.4. Evaluation of the Dutch transition process ………………………………………….. 101
5.4.1. Triggers and supporting conditions for the Dutch transition ………………… 101
5.4.2. Evolution to the current dynamic Dutch equilibrium ………………………….. 107
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5.5. Learning opportunities and learning risks of the Dutch case …………………….. 110
Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 113
6.1. Consolidation of different perspectives on transitions …………………………….. 113
6.2. Implications for quantitative modelling ……………………………………………… 119
6.3. Lessons from the case studies ………………………………………………………… 122
6.4. The SyNeA framework as the cornerstone of our method for the analysis and
modelling of transitions ………………………………………………………………… 129
Reflection………………………………………………………………………………………………. 133
7.1. A definition of transitions ………………………………………………………………. 133
7.2. A perspective from which to analyse transitions …………………………………… 134
7.3. The use of case study in transition research ……………………………………….. 136
7.3.1. Case study design…………………………………………………………………… 136
7.3.2. Case study execution ………………………………………………………………. 137
7.3.3. Case study conclusions …………………………………………………………….. 137
7.4. Recommendation for further study …………………………………………………… 138
References …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 141
Summary ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 153
Resumen ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 157
Samenvatting …………………………………………………………………………………………. 161
Curriculum Vitae ……………………………………………………………………………………… 167

Abstract

Transitions are processes of change that have always occurred in society: for example, the production of goods changed from handcraft to machine-made. In recent years, these transitions attract more and more attention, mainly because societies now wish to actively bring about certain changes, such as the reduction of the use of fossil fuels – the so-called energy transition. This raises several questions, such as: how do ‘transitions’ evolve and to what extent can the course of such a process be influenced? This PhD thesis tries to improve the understanding of those transitions that have both a social and a technological aspect. This thesis presents a method of analysis with which these processes of socio-technical change can be captured in their full breadth and be modelled, which can serve as a basis for the simulation of a transition. Central to this approach is that we analyse the dynamics of the entire system, of the individual actors and of the actor networks at the same time as well as the interactions between these levels. This is the ‘System-Network-Agent approach’ that is proposed in this thesis. This method of analysis was applied in two in-depth case studies: about the transition in Brazil towards the use of bio-ethanol as car fuel, and the transition in the Netherlands towards a supply-chain approach for the treatment of household waste. Several lessons can be learned from these case studies. First, government can affect a transition, but not effect it. Government can try to start a transition process, but it depends on many other circumstances and actors – which cannot be controlled by government – whether the desired change is actually achieved. Moreover, both case studies show that a hierarchical government with a clear policy focus is more effective in bringing about changes than a government that keeps all options open and seeks to reach social consensus first. For example, the most significant change concerning the treatment of household waste in the last century in the Netherlands occurred during the German occupation in World War II. Drastic events, such as a crisis or very high oil prices, play an important role in transitions. They can be an incentive for the development of alternatives to the current practice or help to align the preferences of different actors. As such, drastic events can provide a window of opportunity in a transition, but they could also hinder such a process. From the case studies we conclude that the system, network and agent levels are all needed in a transition. A ‘top-down transition’ needs bottom-up acceptance, whereas a ‘bottom-up transition’ will not succeed if it is blocked from the top. The proposed ‘System-Network-Agent approach’ has proven to be a powerful tool to capture exactly those interdependencies, as this thesis shows.

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