Understanding socio-technical change

Transitions are processes of change that have always occurred in society: for example, the production of goods changed from handcraft to machine-made. In recent years, these transitions attract more and more attention, mainly because societies now wish to actively bring about certain changes, such as the reduction of the use of fossil fuels – the so-called energy transition. This raises several questions, such as: how do ‘transitions’ evolve and to what extent can the course of such a process be influenced? This PhD thesis tries to improve the understanding of those transitions that have both a social and a technological aspect. This thesis presents a method of analysis with which these processes of socio-technical change can be captured in their full breadth and be modelled, which can serve as a basis for the simulation of a transition. Central to this approach is that we analyse the dynamics of the entire system, of the individual actors and of the actor networks at the same time as well as the interactions between these levels. This is the ‘System-Network-Agent approach’ that is proposed in this thesis. This method of analysis was applied in two in-depth case studies: about the transition in Brazil towards the use of bio-ethanol as car fuel, and the transition in the Netherlands towards a supply-chain approach for the treatment of household waste. Several lessons can be learned from these case studies. First, government can affect a transition, but not effect it. Government can try to start a transition process, but it depends on many other circumstances and actors – which cannot be controlled by government – whether the desired change is actually achieved. Moreover, both case studies show that a hierarchical government with a clear policy focus is more effective in bringing about changes than a government that keeps all options open and seeks to reach social consensus first. For example, the most significant change concerning the treatment of household waste in the last century in the Netherlands occurred during the German occupation in World War II. Drastic events, such as a crisis or very high oil prices, play an important role in transitions. They can be an incentive for the development of alternatives to the current practice or help to align the preferences of different actors. As such, drastic events can provide a window of opportunity in a transition, but they could also hinder such a process. From the case studies we conclude that the system, network and agent levels are all needed in a transition. A ‘top-down transition’ needs bottom-up acceptance, whereas a ‘bottom-up transition’ will not succeed if it is blocked from the top. The proposed ‘System-Network-Agent approach’ has proven to be a powerful tool to capture exactly those interdependencies, as this thesis shows.